MNF Statistical Mismatch
This story originally published on ScoutNFLNetwork.com
Peyton Manning
Peyton Manning
Cold, Hard Football Facts
Posted Sep 23, 2013


Oakland-Denver: Monday Night Football Statistical Mismatch...

Oakland-Denver: Monday Night Football Statistical Mismatch

Cold, Hard Football Facts Insider with Scout.com breaks down every NFL game against the spread through the prism of our 22 cutting-edge Quality Stats. CHFF Insiders have gone .500 or better ATS in 72 percent of NFL weeks since the start of 2009. CHFF Insiders with Scout.com also get access to betting trends, key prop plays (9-2 in 2013), inside interviews with Vegas bookmakers and detailed team stat profiles. Become a CHFF Insider with Scout.com today. 

By Kerry J. Byrne

Cold, Hard Football Facts Potentate of Pigskin (@footballfacts)

Oakland at Denver (-15)

Parity has long been an NFL buzz word. And, certainly, more than half of all NFL games are decided by one score or less year to year.

But you wouldn’t know it this week.

Seattle was a historic 19.5-point over Jacksonville on Sunday and easily delivered with a 45-17 victory. Now the Denver Broncos host the AFC West rival (or former rival to be more accurate) Oakland Raiders as solid two-touchdown favorites. .

Denver through two weeks has embarrassed both the defending Super Bowl champion Ravens and a Giants team that harbored legit playoff dreams by a combined score of 90-50. That’s impressive in any era.

The Raiders, meanwhile, have scored just 36 points in two games, losing 21-17 at Indianapolis and beating the hapless Jaguars 19-9 at home in Week 2.

This game shapes up as an epic statistical mismatch in favor of Peyton Manning and the Broncos, as measured by our Cold, Hard Football Facts Quality Stats, each of which has a direct correlation to winning football games. Denver is:

  • No. 1 in Offensive Passer Rating
  • No. 1 in Real Quarterback Rating
  • No. 1 in Passer Rating Differential
  • No. 1 in Scoreability
  • No. 2 in Total Team yards
  • No. 3 in Real Passing Yards Per Attempt

Oakland counters with one of the worst pass defenses in football, despite the fact they had the luxury of facing the impotent Jaguars.

The Raiders are No. 25 in Defensive Real Quarterback Rating and No. 27 in Defensive Passer Rating.

However, they’re not a total pushover. Oakland ranks No. 9 in Defensive Real Passing YPA and No. 5 in Total Team Yards Allowed. However, as noted, the quality of the offensive competition has not been great.

The Raiders have not faced anything like the Denver buzzsaw. One other factor works in Denver’s favor. The Broncos rank much more highly on the Intelligence Index, our measure of how well teams play in situational football that has such an incredible impact on success both straight up and against the spread.

The Broncos are simply playing a lot smarter and more efficiently than the un-intelligent Raiders. And as we know, smart teams beat the spread; dumb teams do not.

Terrelle Pryor has been a nice little story for the Raiders and a promising dual threat. But he's no match for prolific Peyton.

We prefer not to give 15 points in an NFL game.

But we envisioned a major victory for the Seahawks on Sunday. We expect a similar, if less dramatic a win, for the Broncos here on Monday Night Football because of specific statistical match-ups within each game, both physically and mentally.

The Denver buzzsaw will slow down soon enough. It just won't be this week at home against the Raiders.

Pick: Denver 34, Oakland 14

Cold, Hard Football Facts Insider with Scout.com breaks down every NFL game against the spread through the prism of our 22 cutting-edge Quality Stats. CHFF Insiders have gone .500 or better ATS in 72 percent of NFL weeks since the start of 2009. CHFF Insiders with Scout.com also get access to betting trends, key prop plays (9-2 in 2013), inside interviews with Vegas bookmakers and detailed team stat profiles. Become a CHFF Insider with Scout.com today. 

 



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